Discussion likelihood of an EMP attack

[IchijouRirika]

Recently, I've been seeing a lot of people talking about EMP attacks everywhere (mostly because of this one movie that came out I suppose) with many treating it as a certainty it will happen this decade. Does any of you think this is really going to happen either within this decade or the next one?

I know the focus of people is mostly the US suffering an EMP attack by some foreign enemy, but the scenario I'm imagining is more like a global thing, all countries in the world back to the time before electricity and all that (imagine it a little bit like all that Cyber Polygon talk back in 2020-2021 I guess)

 

[Redacted24]

Hi, just found this one. I think it's an interesting question.
While I don't discount some actor using a device to generate, I think it's unlikely, and unless things escalate wouldn't cause irrecoverable global disruption.
More likely scenarios would be a localized cyber attack which could generate cascading system failures and possibly spread beyond borders. Still relatively localized but with global repercussions.
The worst case, and unpredictable scenario would be an massive coronal mass ejection event from the sun, causing pretty much all electromagnetic system failures across the planet. There is no defense for this.
The 2016 Japanese film "survival family" used this as its premise.
Fun thoughts... cheers

 

[DarkRange55]

Not very unlikely - even North Korea (or soon, Iran) could launch an EMP attack (A-bomb in space), and the sun could also burp.

 

[WilliamXX]

An EMP catastrophic event is a theory. Nature shields us from solar flares, in theory they could disrupt our space technology. As for a nuclear weapon generated EMP, yes a nuclear explosion creates that effect, but it is so localised that to be affected by it would mean you'd suffer the heat and blast effects as well. The theory of detonating nuclear weapons in the stratosphere to create widespread EMP effects is an untested theory.

 

[DarkRange55]

An EMP catastrophic event is a theory. Nature shields us from solar flares, in theory they could disrupt our space technology. As for a nuclear weapon generated EMP, yes a nuclear explosion creates that effect, but it is so localised that to be affected by it would mean you'd suffer the heat and blast effects as well. The theory of detonating nuclear weapons in the stratosphere to create widespread EMP effects is an untested theory.

Soviet Project K nuclear tests - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"The Soviet scientists instrumented a 570-kilometer (350 mi) section of telephone line in the area that they expected to be affected by the nuclear detonation in order to measure the electromagnetic pulse effects.[2]​The electromagnetic pulse (EMP) fused all of the 570-kilometer monitored overhead telephone line with measured currents of 1500 to 3400 amperes during the 22 October 1962 test.[3]​ The monitored telephone line was divided into sub-lines of 40 to 80 kilometres (25 to 50 mi) in length, separated by repeaters. Each sub-line was protected by fuses and by gas-filledovervoltage protectors. The EMP from the 22 October (K-3) nuclear test caused all of the fuses to blow and all of the overvoltage protectors to fire in all of the sub-lines of the 570 km (350 mi) telephone line.[2]​ The EMP from the same test caused the destruction of the Karaganda power plant, and shut down 1,000 km (620 mi) of shallow-buried power cables between Astana (then called Aqmola) and Almaty (then called Alma-Ata).[3]"​

"High-altitude nuclear EMPs were discovered as part of the atmospheric Operation Fishbowl testing series in 1962. The most famous of these, Starfish Prime, was detonated at nearly 250 miles above the planet's surface."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/21/electromagnetic-pulses-emp-weapons-nuclear-explosion/#:~:text=High%2Daltitude%20nuclear%20EMPs%20were,miles%20above%20the%20planet's%20surface.

 

[DarkRange55]

An EMP catastrophic event is a theory. Nature shields us from solar flares, in theory they could disrupt our space technology. As for a nuclear weapon generated EMP, yes a nuclear explosion creates that effect, but it is so localised that to be affected by it would mean you'd suffer the heat and blast effects as well. The theory of detonating nuclear weapons in the stratosphere to create widespread EMP effects is an untested theory.

Yes - a significant danger for satellites, and even on earth flares can take down power grids..

https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/solar-storm-early-warning-system-b6324524#:~:text=A%20solar%20storm%20can%20induce,of%20our%20power%2Ddistribution%20infrastructure.&text=And%20while%20the%20undersea%20fiber,electrical%20signal%2Drepeaters%20within%20them.

EMP from a nuke in space (~LEO) can produce a huge EMP on earth without much heat damage and no blast damage.