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noname223

Archangel
Aug 18, 2020
5,426
The Trump campaign was pretty horrendous. Way too much culture war, way too online themes. It was a big mistake that Vance was chosen as the V.P. I think Trump only chose him because he thought the opponent was Biden. The Trump campaign was too strongly focused on Biden. I think a stronger emphasis on the economy and a more liberal stance on abortion could have helped them. The campaign was driven by identity politics while accusing Kamala of identity politics.
The momentum was exceptionally well for Trump after his assassination attack. Trump could have acted like the candidate for unity against polarization. It looked like that for well let's say 24 hours. Then he was back at his toxic behavior. It is obvious that he tries to divide the masses and that he is responsible at least partly for the heated atmosphere that almost killed him.

Trump is a fuck up and that's obvious. His cult adores him. But his crypto scams, the fact he is a criminal, he shits on the average man, spits on unions while pretending he was the most union friendly candidate. It is a joke.

He is a narcissist that only cares about himself. And Vance is a cheap copy with that with no charisma but more education.

I think abortion was the final nail in the coffin for this campaign. The polls are off it is not that close. The sleepers gonna be old, angry women. They don't show up in the surveys but will vote.

Kamala's campaign was way from perfect. Israel, the economy, trying to distance themselves from Biden. But overall the campaign was more solid. It was more policy focused. And I think the choice for Walz was right afterall. It showed the Democrats care for the little man.

I don't think it will be a landslide but the polls don't depict the accurate picture. I think we will know the next president this night. I think I will wake up in the middle of the night to check results. In Germany the first results are known at 1 a.m. and at 3/4 a.m. swing states. I will soon go to bed.

I am little bit too bold with these predictions. I will make an ass out of myself if I fail. I also told my prediction to other people in real life. However, if I am wrong I don't give a fuck. The experts I listened to are public persons and I think for them the pressure to be right is way higher. It is a little bit of a thrill. And I think my manic symptoms might drive me to risky behavior. Yeah other bipolar people consider unprotected sex as risky behavior. And me I consider sharing my election prediction with everyone a risky behavior. Lmao.

By the way I was wrong 2016, but I was right 2020.
 
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daley

daley

Experienced
May 11, 2024
205
But the 2016 election you were wrong about was Trump as well.
I wonder how the 2016 polls compare to this time.

I just found this article noting that polls in 2016 were for the democratic party as well.

How can this be so close, I am just baffled.
 
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derpyderpins

derpyderpins

In the Service of the Queen
Sep 19, 2023
1,899
What's the next phase past underestimating your opponent? You're two or three past that.

How can this be so close, I am just baffled.
If ya'll are missing how it is close you are missing some pretty big stuff. I mean, you have to be, right? I guess the polls and numbers could be really wrong, and we'll see tonight/over the coming days if it's too close to call tonight. But, if the polls aren't wrong, and this is actually close (or - god forbid - the polls are wrong in the other direction) you'll have to admit you were really missing something.

I know I can't say this without being branded as supporting the other side, but living in a bubble makes your own side weak and it always frustrates me to see it. Both sides do it, for sure. Both sides have their echo chambers, but Trump being so bombastic seems to have put extra thick blinders on the left. Democrats will continue to be massively disappointing and underperforming so long as they don't even attempt to understand their opponents.

Imagine preparing for a football game, and you're watching film of the other side, but instead of taking notes you keep letting yourself get angry at how they go about running their offense and their formations, so you say "it's ridiculous, there's no way this absurd scheme could work!" Well, that team running this crazy scheme has already won games they shouldn't have. They caught a good team off-guard two games ago. And by not studying the film properly and taking the opponent seriously you can look very foolish.
 
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noname223

Archangel
Aug 18, 2020
5,426
My reasoning was Allan Lichtman and Michael Moore were right 2016, 2020 and the latter one also 2022.
Especially, Lichtman is not part of any team. And he was my main influence. If Lichtman predicted something else I would not have been confident. He was right all the past elections except Bush vs Gore. It is the political scientist with the model of the 13 keys of the White House.
 
Dr Iron Arc

Dr Iron Arc

Into the Unknown
Feb 10, 2020
21,206
I have a perfect losing streak on all my predictions for every election I've been able to vote in. Even in 2012 I somehow thought Romney might beat Obama. In 2016 I voted for Trump but I didn't think he'd actually win. In 2020 I actually thought he'd stay president and was wrong again. This time I wasn't really sure what to think but I guess it's my fault for going on Twitter and being led to believe Kamala would win based on how optimistic everyone seemed to be for her. Sucks that I even voted for her this time too. Really sorry to everyone for jinxing it.
 
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noname223

Archangel
Aug 18, 2020
5,426
I have the feeling this thread won't age well. XD.
Maybe it still has a good purpose for comedy reasons. He fucking even won the popular vote.
 
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ThatStateOfMind

Enlightened
Nov 13, 2021
1,237
I have the feeling this thread won't age well. XD.
Maybe it still has a good purpose for comedy reasons. He fucking even won the popular vote.
From what I've read, apparently a lot of democrats didn't vote this time around. Some people have said they knew a lot of Muslim and Jewish people who didn't vote because both candidates are pro-Israel but in not voting, they allowed the most pro-Israel one in office.