• Hey Guest,

    As you know, censorship around the world has been ramping up at an alarming pace. The UK and OFCOM has singled out this community and have been focusing its censorship efforts here. It takes a good amount of resources to maintain the infrastructure for our community and to resist this censorship. We would appreciate any and all donations.

    Bitcoin Address (BTC): 39deg9i6Zp1GdrwyKkqZU6rAbsEspvLBJt

    Ethereum (ETH): 0xd799aF8E2e5cEd14cdb344e6D6A9f18011B79BE9

    Monero (XMR): 49tuJbzxwVPUhhDjzz6H222Kh8baKe6rDEsXgE617DVSDD8UKNaXvKNU8dEVRTAFH9Av8gKkn4jDzVGF25snJgNfUfKKNC8

DarkRange55

DarkRange55

I am Skynet
Oct 15, 2023
1,855
Lets look at the Vegas odds…

I always look where people are betting their money because money is more powerful than political affiliation. People will bet their money even where their heart isn't. Follow the money. It's not always 100% true but I believe it more than I believe any form of media. I like to watch the Vegas money, it's interesting. People cam have all these strong beliefs but where they bet their money is where their real belief is. As the old proverb says, "where a man's money is, there you will find his heart."
(It's an adaptation of Matthew 6:21, which states, "For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.")
People's true allegiance - right now, at least the gamblers are with Trump on this one. Kamala has had quite a jump up.

The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866
1. Who's taller?
2. Who's the incumbent?
3. The state of economy?

1. More than 60% of the time, the taller person has won. When the shorter person has won it's usually been about an inch difference. Kamala is about 5'6" - 5'7". Almost a foot shorter than Trump.
2. She's never been president and Trump has.
3. Who is responsible for the most recent economic up or down? Biden is saying inflation isn't high but just check the grocery store… Most Americans perceive America as in a down. It doesn't matter what anyone puts out. The general consensus of most Americans is that it's on the down.

My friends who are more conspiracy theorists say the powers that be will manufacture something. I don't know. I like numbers, I'm a business person.

Presidential election betting odds:

William Hill

  • Donald Trump: -200
  • Kamala Harris: +200
Bet 365
  • Donald Trump: -200
  • Kamala Harris: +200
via Covers.com

Bovada
  • Donald Trump: -215
  • Kamala Harris: +190
BetOnline
  • Donald Trump: -200
  • Kamala Harris: +185
Oddschecker
  • Donald Trump: -164
  • Kamala Harris: +275
 
Z

zengiraffe

Member
Feb 29, 2024
65
1. Who's taller?
I feel like this matters more when both candidates are male. Trump is also taller than Hillary but she won the popular vote by 3 million votes in 2016. Hillary ultimately lost, but she didn't lose to Trump, she lost to America's arcane and stupid electoral college system.

2. Who's the incumbent?
Neither. Trump was president once before but he lost in 2020 to Biden, and not because people loved Biden, they just really hated Trump. The same people who hated Trump in 2020 still hate him in 2024, and are going to vote for Kamala this time around.

3. The state of economy?
Your point makes sense, and I don't know enough here to make any counter arguments. It's possible the current inflation could hurt Kamala's chances.

I do think one thing worth noting is how huge Trump was online and in the media from 2015 - 2020. Everyone was following his twitter. /r/The_Donald was one of the most active subreddits on reddit. He was constantly on every news channel. Yet since then Trump was banned from twitter and hasn't returned. /r/The_Donald was also banned from reddit back in 2020. I think news channels are now also more cautious about reporting on Trump since most of them have realized their coverage helped instead of hurt him back in 2015 - 2016. He was also the underdog back in 2016 which made his supporters even more rabid. Trump has none of the momentum going into the 2024 election that he had back in 2016.

TL;DR: I don't agree with the betting odds. I think it's closer to 50/50.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DarkRange55
DarkRange55

DarkRange55

I am Skynet
Oct 15, 2023
1,855
I feel like this matters more when both candidates are male. Trump is also taller than Hillary but she won the popular vote by 3 million votes in 2016. Hillary ultimately lost, but she didn't lose to Trump, she lost to America's arcane and stupid electoral college system.


Neither. Trump was president once before but he lost in 2020 to Biden, and not because people loved Biden, they just really hated Trump. The same people who hated Trump in 2020 still hate him in 2024, and are going to vote for Kamala this time around.


Your point makes sense, and I don't know enough here to make any counter arguments. It's possible the current inflation could hurt Kamala's chances.

I do think one thing worth noting is how huge Trump was online and in the media from 2015 - 2020. Everyone was following his twitter. /r/The_Donald was one of the most active subreddits on reddit. He was constantly on every news channel. Yet since then Trump was banned from twitter and hasn't returned. /r/The_Donald was also banned from reddit back in 2020. I think news channels are now also more cautious about reporting on Trump since most of them have realized their coverage helped instead of hurt him back in 2015 - 2016. He was also the underdog back in 2016 which made his supporters even more rabid. Trump has none of the momentum going into the 2024 election that he had back in 2016.

TL;DR: I don't agree with the betting odds. I think it's closer to 50/50.
I just meant statically if you're a betting person. Really looking at Wall Street would be the thing to do. But they wine either way.
Inflation (overall; it's a basket of goods) is down. Look at the stock market. But it's the perception that matters.
As Clinton's campaign said, "its the economy, stupid"
Definitely a difference between a gamble, a speculation and an investment.
I just think it's interesting to see where people are betting their money on this.
I'm not saying I agree with these odds but thats what Vegas is favoring.
Kamala was the VP, that counts as an incumbent and statistically they're just been too few women too draw these parallels I suppose