Which international global crisis comes next?

[noname223]

I think most of us wish there would be no more crisis. But then covid happened, then Ukraine, then inflation and energy crisis. So what might be the next one?

My best guess is a huge financial crisis. Some of these crises triggered other crises. There are so much more debts which the states owe now.

In some years China might want to invade Taiwan but I think this will happen in some years and not now.

Let's hope for the best. But what the world is currently facing is a lot.

Other guesses of mine: refugee crisis there is already one and climate catastrophes

Of course there is more than one answer possible.

I explain the collapse of Chinese government. Xi is still fully convinced in zero covid. His strategy is so stupid. No proper vaccines and now support for zero covid is equal to support for Xi. The refugee crisis could be extreme.

What are your guesses?

If you have a crisis to add you can name it.

 

[jodes2]

If another COVID crisis happens, my plans are screwed for sure. So many pubs and nightclubs went bust

 

[Meaninglessness]

I believe that the next international global crisis will be World War III and a nuclear war. But there are people who claim that World War III already has begun.

 

[sserafim]

I think most of us wish there would be no more crisis. But then covid happened, then Ukraine, then inflation and energy crisis. So what might be the next one?

My best guess is a huge financial crisis. Some of these crises triggered other crises. There are so much more debts which the states owe now.

In some years China might want to invade Taiwan but I think this will happen in some years and not now.

Let's hope for the best. But what the world is currently facing is a lot.

Other guesses of mine: refugee crisis there is already one and climate catastrophes

Of course there is more than one answer possible.

I explain the collapse of Chinese government. Xi is still fully convinced in zero covid. His strategy is so stupid. No proper vaccines and now support for zero covid is equal to support for Xi. The refugee crisis could be extreme.

What are your guesses?

If you have a crisis to add you can name it.

Probably WW3 if the US gets involved in the Ukraine War, but it probably won't due to MAD…lol the power of nukes, right? (haha jk)

I think NK is crazy enough to nuke SK tho, so maybe this would result in the start of WWIII…

I also think a financial crisis and societal collapse is likely for the US. The US is literally on the verge of collapse…

 

[eve2004]

There are likely a million crises happening that we aren't aware of. Those with power have every bit of control over everything. Either people will survive or they will not, and those hanging on in between don't have a voice so no one will know that anything is wrong. Those who do will turn a blind eye.

 

[noname223]

I think Israel-Palestine counts as another regional/local war (for now).

 

[DEATH IS FREEDOM]

The overpopulation crisis - and we are already living in it but it will get worse.

 

[moondazed]

taking in consideration this post was made almost a whole year ago, it's interesting that the major event since is primarily palestine vs isreal. maybe we could add the submarine thing in there lol

i think this is a long world war we've been in, probably since 2010 or so, or you could stretch and even say it started in the 90s with the fall of the ussr and all the gulf war stuff. but maybe we wouldn't consider it a "world war" until the major powers really go at it. It's a lot of proxy war now, and what sucks is that all the victims are people with no other choice because it's all they know.

a lesser known conflict is whats happening in sudan, too. this is an interesting video that just dropped a couple weeks ago

 

[Rapière]

'Noname223 stops making new threads'.The world will crumble.

 

[real person]

The overpopulation crisis - and we are already living in it but it will get worse.

overpopulation isn't a thing but ok

 

[DarkRange55]

I think a full scale invasion of Taiwan is unlikely for many reasons. I've lived in Taiwan and Macau.
China may do something bad to Taiwan like cancellation of preferential tax rates for imported products from Taiwan (FTA , CPTPP…). I think eventually China could slowly absorb Taiwan back into its orbit through economics. Read The Rise of Logic vs the Logic of Strategy - ancient chinese tactic to rope enemies into trade circles and make them partly reliant on goods.

MAD so far has worked out. It remains a constant possibility but I think a more likely scenario is: maybe a 20% due to scale of retribution, a dirty bomb or say 22-kiloton bomb being detonated on US soil by a Latin cartel or terrorist group is in the next century.

The market crashes every decade (roughly). The panic of 1901, the panic of 1907, the wall street crash of 1929, the recession of 1937, the flash crash of 1962, the market crash of 1973, black Monday in 1987, the Friday the 13th crash of 1989, black Wednesday 1992, DotCom Crash 2000, financial crash of 2007, the 2020 market crash. A few of the crashes in America only. But it always seems to rebound and reach new all time highs so its just cycles.

My thesis around China is unchanged. There's maximum fear and pessimism in China. I think most beliefs are wrong. I think China is going through some troubles. But I don't think the Chinese government is going to intentionally destroy their economy. They cracked down on their tech giants because Jack Ma opened his mouth. Its not America where you can just criticize people. They stay powerful by having a strong economy which results in a strong military and a bunch of other benefits around the globe. They're our geopolitical enemy and you're going to hear a lot of propaganda in the US. During the Great Recession, the US stock market fell +56%. Nobody seems to talk about this anymore. Back then people were saying US stocks are over. The same stuff about China. Maybe the Chinese government will intervene and prop up their property sector. We did the same thing and had a golden age for US stocks. We cut interest rates to zero, cut taxes for corporations in 2017. Its a not so great population pyramid in their demography. They're aging and not having as many kids. The estimated working population right now is almost 3 times the United States. Even by 2050 they're working population is gonna be twice the size of the US.

Pandemics are also cyclical. The first plague pandemic, (6th century – 8th century) and the second plague pandemic (14th century – early 19th century), the 1918-1920 flu pandemic, ect.

 

[mortuarymary]

I think America will get involved in the war with Russia and Ukraine and then involve the uk as we owe them trillions of dollars.

 

[DarkRange55]

I think America will get involved in the war with Russia and Ukraine and then involve the uk as we owe them trillions of dollars.

Direct conflict between global powers is very unlikely. The US and UK have special forces operating the Ukraine but thats the most extent of it. The risk of nuclear escalation is too great and Russia doesn't have the manpower or resources to launch a full scale invasion of Europe anymore. It's been proxy wars for a while now.

If NATO had disbanded in 1992 right after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia would still be invading Ukraine. They were always going to do this, NATO had nothing to do with it. In fact Russia would have taken the Baltic's first. They would have gone into Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - that enclave Kaliningrad doesn't touch Russia, they weren't gonna let that stand for eternity, they were always gonna connect their borders.
Russia didn't invade Ukraine sooner because basically they were in control of the government politically. The president of Ukraine was a puppet Russian actor that did whatever Russia wanted so Russia had their buffer state. It was only in 2014 when a real democratic election happened in Ukraine that Russia realized soft power wasn't enough to control Ukraine anymore. So this military conflict was inevitable.

The Baltic Sea is basically now a NATO lake. Kaliningrad is completely surrounded. I think at the end of this, Kaliningrad needs to become an independent state or potentially merge with Lithuania or Poland given there history. We'll see.

Today, Russia is one of the few debt-free nations in the world, is consolidating its influence over the CIS and other former Soviet republics, and has a world-class military with little power projection but still orders of magnitude more than what it had twenty years ago. Military wise- America and Russia. Only 2 countries that will send troops to foreign battles on their own (no coalitions). France has been doing this for decades. (They also have the third largest nuclear arsenal.) Economically- America and China. European Union would be here if they were more united in their foreign policy. Nowadays, our world is becoming increasingly multipolar. With the example of Russia, they have a niche of military and cybersecurity in which they project their power, and this is generally the most visible to the public, compared to a country like Germany that asserts its power through political means and by financial dominance of the EU. Russia is a declining power. Like Britain after the world wars, Russia is settling down from superpower status to great power, or perhaps even middle power status. A large, nuclear backed military, sizable economy, access to vast resources, and an incredibly large expanse of land all help Russia hold on to great power status.

The largest holders of US debt are the American people/corporations/programs (like social security)/funds (like pensions, ect.). The largest foreign holder of US debt is Japan.

Which Countries Hold the Most U.S. Debt?

Foreign investors hold $7.3 trillion of the national U.S. debt. These holdings declined 6% in 2022 amid a strong U.S. dollar and rising rates.

www.visualcapitalist.com

The thing with the UK is, the US and Great Britain have a military relationship unlike pretty much any other in the history of mankind. We share *everything.* Its mutually beneficial. We've been doing this since World War II. And no matter what the public opinion is, that has never changed. They're not gonna slow down our military cooperation because we all know that when the shit hits the fan we end up generally having the same opinions and being on the same side. the US also has mutual defense treaties with Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, technically Japan plus NATO.

We'll just have a century of proxy wars. Currently we are in the Cold War 2.0 with Russia and especially China. I assume the next World War, if there is one, won't be for a very long time, possibly humanity desperate for resources. Could be space-based but there are ingenuitive, solutions to resource scarcity so who knows.

Otherwise, the worst humanitarian disaster is likely going to be huge refugees crises due to climate change and economic disparity due to global fuel shortages or more likely wealth inequality or something to that extent. But technological development helps keep up with the ravages of inflation/cost of living.
Instead I see more proxy wars, "cyber" wars, economic chicanery, and lots and lots of political posturing. The world overall will be more peaceful, but the "hot spots" will continue to be unstable.

War always leads to scientific and technological breakthroughs so it's likely we'll see huge advancements in cryptography both protecting and cracking it, especially with Quantum computing.
Big downside is we will also probably see huge leaps in AI with no thought given to the larger implications of these leaps due to war justifying it
Race for AI superiority has already begin with the US's Project Maven and rival countries' versions of the same.

"World War 4," and we're already in it. The first two were about military dominance in open warfare, the "third one" was about political dominance, and the "fourth" is about economic dominance.

I'm sure there are US citizens fighting and what they are is probably special forces I'd imagine that there's some US special forces there I've the suspicion that these weapon systems they're touting various deliveries various missiles and such if they've been given access to these various types of missiles I don't believe that they're just given to the Ukrainians I believe there are probably US special forces operating these weapon systems.
They might be testing the weapons, thats part of why our government sustained these bullshit wars in Afghanistan and Iraq amongst all the other reasons it was a convenient place to test in real life these various weapons systems that they're spending a lot of money on and to have a constant kind of live exercise training situation so that they find themselves in the position with a lot of officers and NCO's and such with some level of combat experience which is useful even if it is in an asymmetric warfare type situation
Russia has veterans of its many regional conflicts.

 

[DarkRange55]

I have ordered the list by time to a given crisis:

• Another health crisis – we have several crises ongoing at the moment, including cancer rates and dementia.

• A new covid mutation – happens every day. Fortunately, however, most of them are not serious.

• Huge refugee crisis – many would argue that we are already in one

• Another local war for example North Korea, Iran or other countries – these happen every few years (Ukraine 2022, Gaza 2023)

• Financial crisis – we are headed for one (China's market malaise infecting the rest of the world, and/or proceeding too fast to ditch fossil fuels)

• Climate catastrophes – if we don't move fast enough to ditch fossil fuels

• China invades Taiwan – it is possible that China will invade Taiwan to avoid a collapse of their government

• Collapse of Chinese government– this would be a crisis?

• A country drops a nuke – this is less likely than it seems because the consequences for the country dropping the nuke would be so great

• World war 3– this is not much of a danger until AI controls the political process

I think most of us wish there would be no more crisis. But then covid happened, then Ukraine, then inflation and energy crisis. So what might be the next one?

My best guess is a huge financial crisis. Some of these crises triggered other crises. There are so much more debts which the states owe now.

In some years China might want to invade Taiwan but I think this will happen in some years and not now.

Let's hope for the best. But what the world is currently facing is a lot.

Other guesses of mine: refugee crisis there is already one and climate catastrophes

Of course there is more than one answer possible.

I explain the collapse of Chinese government. Xi is still fully convinced in zero covid. His strategy is so stupid. No proper vaccines and now support for zero covid is equal to support for Xi. The refugee crisis could be extreme.

What are your guesses?

If you have a crisis to add you can name it.

Everyone talks about China invading Taiwan directly but why would they have to do that? The semiconductor industry's infrastructure would be ruined. Rather, they could just continue to attempt to influence them through culture and buy up their land and businesses with money and bribe their politicians (even if it is through shell/dummy corporations/fronts). I think that if Taiwan is ever absorbed back into communist China my guess is that they would just slowly bring them back into their orbit through different forms of increasing influence. i.e., foreign exchange students, power marriages, espionage, political interference, economic and trade manipulation/pressure, Chinese investment, political propaganda, cyber attacks/manipulation, ect. I read that the Chinese strategy for a while has been of attrition. They want to wear down and drain the Taiwanese through constant saber rattling and border harassment. Just to chip away at their economy (partly by draining the military's funding) and effectiveness and resolve.

Proxy wars might be the status quo, but direct war seems obsolete to me. I think for a war now to reach a global level, it would have to be largely financially based (and we may be in one now). Management of markets and trade embargoes would lead to internal conflicts within governments that would extend across borders. It's not a war in the traditional sense, but I think it could still be considered a war. I'm doubtful of the utilitarian value of detonating a nuke during a proxy war. I believe in terms of military value there's more useful tactical weapons which also have less fallout…

Economic sanctions and cyber warfare. Tariffs and trade sanctions. Look at the headlines and you'd swear we were already at war, wouldn't you? ;-)

A hybrid warfare scenario such as cyberattacks, influence OPs, and/ or Wagner/little green men is more likely with russia vs nato than outright hostilities. you could box that into state sponsored terrorism IMO...

 

[DarkRange55]

What about climate crisis?
Stronger storms and more fires. Maybe AMOC collapse.
Do you think climate refuges will be an issue in the future? Like tens of thousands of people if not millions?
Tens of thousands of people already, could easily go to millions if we don't act fast enough

 

[noname223]

What about climate crisis?
Stronger storms and more fires. Maybe AMOC collapse.
Do you think climate refuges will be an issue in the future? Like tens of thousands of people if not millions?
Tens of thousands of people already, could easily go to millions if we don't act fast enough

Certainly climate refugees are already a thing. However most regugees stay within the same country they come from. The world is going down. I think Europe will be more affected than the US. And it will fuel extremism..

You come from the US don't you? You are quite active currently thank you for posting in all my threads. You also seem to be quite informed and smart. And you also linked a video of Secular Talk I like this dude.

 

[Shrike]

I think the upcoming summer will be fun somewhere in the West. That SST graph is looking insane. At some point, some grid somewhere is going to fail with massive losses due to heat. Maybe people will start paying attention then. But I did say this about the previous summer, maybe I'll be wrong again. Every summer feels like Russian roulette to me.

 

[DarkRange55]

I think the upcoming summer will be fun somewhere in the West. That SST graph is looking insane. At some point, some grid somewhere is going to fail with massive losses due to heat. Maybe people will start paying attention then. But I did say this about the previous summer, maybe I'll be wrong again. Every summer feels like Russian roulette to me.

Texas is isolated. The rest of the country is tied together, (example: Western US and western Canada to make it more resilient, same voltages and frequencies), and yes at peak times during summer loss of a major transmission intertie system can result in blackouts and load shedding. Its happened. It usually takes loss of more than 1 major line. There isnt much load in the central US compared to East West and Texas. They have a lot of wind!
There are major transmission substations that tie different transmission systems from various utilities. Power flow into and out of these grids is monitored. In CA for example, an Independent System Operator (ISO) controls the transmission system. Also not all utilities have the same transmission voltages. So a substation with transformers that match the systems voltages is required. I believe the existing ties are rather weak. Especially if you try to transfer power from great distances. The Western Grid is tied pretty well. But any ties to the Eastern Grid are weak.
Isolation is key. Engineers establish zones of protection around each major piece of the power grid to isolate faults and make them easy to identify and repair. A short circuit in your coffee maker is not going to overload the transformer because there is a fuse.
It can be hard to stay ahead of the new load. Good planning is key. Working with planning commissions and developers. they just up the voltage out of a substation (instead of dropping it as much). Thats what is done to compensate for voltage loss during high load periods. Customers near a sub typically receive higher voltage than end of line customers.

For security purposes they used to be all closed systems. Some lesser systems may use the internet but security is a real issue once you go outside your own closed system. Iran and Russia have breached are grids security in a few instances. Not good.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/largest-us-grid-declares-emergency-alert-amid-scorching-heat



Notice how relatively insignificant solar and wind power are. Basically supplemental. Yet states like CA and the Feds want to eliminate natural gas and are not pushing nuclear. The ave public sees massive solar farms and think they are providing a large percentage of our power.

Heres my plan:
Keep natural gas for foreseeable future. Convert or shut down all coal plants. Instigate an immediate Atomic Energy program to install latest technology reactors at existing sites and reinforce major transmission lines. Construct fuel reprocessing facilities at major plant sites.

One of my godfathers has an undergraduate in nuclear engineering and a PhD and electrical engineering, and he has worked for the power companies for decades.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_power_transmission_grid

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Interconnection

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_area_synchronous_grid

Certainly climate refugees are already a thing. However most regugees stay within the same country they come from. The world is going down. I think Europe will be more affected than the US. And it will fuel extremism..

You come from the US don't you? You are quite active currently thank you for posting in all my threads. You also seem to be quite informed and smart. And you also linked a video of Secular Talk I like this dude.

Climate refugees - currently,
droughts in Africa. Africa is the most sensitive (the middle east also gets hit a bit).

I've had three different passports. I grew up between the US and France. We (my family growing up), lived in Korea for 5 years, Macau for a while, Dubai for six months, I lived in Vietnam for a few years with an ex, Taiwan, ect. But yes, I am American.
Well thank you, I appreciate that. It seems like the wealthy developed nations will survive (we survived the ice age and super volcanos). Not saying there won't be challenges.
I like Secular Talk a lot but I really like Vaush.

Over the past 50-100 years we've had a massive increase in the global population. We've had massive productively gains with technology and overall the world has been pretty prosperous. A big part of that comes from demographics where you have a population pyramid of more young people supporting not that many old people. You have a huge workforce that is paying payroll taxes (at least in the US) and paying Medicare taxes, ect. And that helps support old people and finance the system. Now birthrates are collapsing globally especially in east Asia and the US. America's population pyramid is all from immigration (we'll see how long that lasts…). But overall we've had an inversion of population pyramids. At least in democracies, the old cohort is going to be a massive voting block and they will continue to vote themselves as many benefits as possible as the younger generations continue to shrink as they don't have as much say in politics. Maybe this will lead to some kind of fascism, I don't know. The whole current financial system is based on population growth, productivity gains and the transfer payments from working individuals to retired individuals. So in 100 years when the population begins to collapse and the taxes are much higher - global stock markets, government debt and taxes to support an aging population globally (this will even come for Africa, too, at some point. They probably have it worse because they have huge birthrates now that will probably reverse), whats going to happen? I imagine its going to be worse - taxes and government debt will be high and the stock market (depending on what is representative of the stock market) may not do as well because you have fewer people working in corporations. The only thing that I think would save us would be some type of new technological revolution which maybe enhances lifestyles or lifespans and makes massive gains in productivity for a shrinking working population. Which is entirely possible. If we don't have massive increases in productivity or reverse this crisis, government finances may be so strained that retirement benefits are cut and maybe the global economy starts to flatten out or decline.

This is a whole area of research and analysis for the USA and many other countries that I do not know very well. YES, demographics and intergenerational transfers in many different countries with many complex financial and tax issues.

https://www.nber.org/programs-proje...-disability-research-center?page=1&perPage=50

Side note: Border - they allow illegal immigrants in to fill the cheap labor demand and to help prop up the social security net. It's passive at the highest levels like stopping construction of the fences, not going after sanctuary cities, ect. It's symbolic, small moves. And then its active corrupt payed-off guards.

 

[leavingthesoultrap]

I expect real shitstorm in 2030 - 35.
Ai taking jobs on mass scale and another pandemic possibly.

 

[sserafim]

I expect real shitstorm in 2030 - 35.
Ai taking jobs on mass scale and another pandemic possibly.

I'm surprised that more people aren't scared/terrified of AI. Personally, I believe that AI poses a huge danger to people and society. What will people do once their/all of the jobs are overtaken by AI? Unfortunately, I don't think that an AI utopia is likely…

 

[DarkRange55]

I'm surprised that more people aren't scared/terrified of AI. Personally, I believe that AI poses a huge danger to people and society. What will people do once their/all of the jobs are overtaken by AI? Unfortunately, I don't think that an AI utopia is likely…

Yes, AI is a risk to humanity. We should ensure that the first AI that is smarter than we are is raised by loving parents almost as if it were a human child. I worry about military AI, which would effectively be raised by a paranoid parent.

Farming, draft animals and them powered machines all overturned standard work, yet humanity prospered.
(But AI/robotics could be both faster and more complete replacement of work so it might be different this time...)

But I do think people generally misconstrue AI for AGI, and there is quite a big difference…

My prediction for 2100:
Technology has advanced dramatically since the early 21st century. Computers are now powerful enough to surpass the processing capability of the human brain, leading to intelligent AI systems that can control many different systems, such as traffic (including sky and sea traffic), energy usage, water lines, emergency services, communication, and law enforcement.
Many cities now heavily use robots and automated vehicles for regular work: policing is mostly a robotic job with partial human oversight, commercial shipping and delivery is handled by heavy-lift automated drones, taxi and public transit is fully automated, ambulance and fire departments are reliant on robots for fast and effective emergency response, construction firms use them to ensure building projects are completed in a safe and timely fashion, and even the military is heavy on robotics, as smaller infantry units with robotic exoskeletons and armor work in conjunction with large amounts of automated fighting vehicles, VTOL craft, fighters, naval vessels, orbital fighters, etc.
Besides regular work, robots are widely accepted and used by most of the public, as they are like companions, friends, or even just a reasonable voice to turn to in a time of need. Despite fears otherwise, humans and AI manage to peacefully coexist, altough some AIs are used by hostile governments and terrorists to occasionally steal secrets or create havoc in the general system. Thus, AIs are usually fighting each other off, and helping humans fight each other off.
Speaking of governments, as population increases in many cities worldwide, local governments once again gain more power and pecedence over federal governments as each faces its own unique issues. These governments are mostly AI run, with humans in oversight positions. If something gets fucked up somewhere along the chain, the elected officials are usually blamed. The federal government's only real purpose by this point is to ensure economic balance, scientific research, national security and political unity, much of which is handled at the local level anyway, so usually the feds are seen as idiots debating over pointless topics for political gain.
A form of basic income has been instituted in most first-world countries as a measure to protect the economy from collapse, thus ensuring most citizens have some money to spend to keep it going. Manufacturing has mostly become decentralized, since most of it is done by either home machines or small automated factories, thus many companies just make money by selling consumers the legal right to produce their product. This has an added advantage of freeing the company of responsibility if their product fails, unless the fault is proven to be in the blueprints.
I could probably go on detailing a lot of other systems, but I think I'll just leave it at that. It's enough info to digest already.

I expect real shitstorm in 2030 - 35.
Ai taking jobs on mass scale and another pandemic possibly.

An existential threat, partly because it is a tool that humans may use against each other. I could foresee some sort of UBI being implemented out of necessity or people having unnecessary jobs just to feel a sense of purpose/utility.

One of my friends served as an advisor to some companies developing AI.

 

[DarkRange55]

I expect real shitstorm in 2030 - 35.
Ai taking jobs on mass scale and another pandemic possibly.

We should be afraid of something more deadly coming down the pipe. These diseases just jumping into people. It just happens all the time, we can't control it. And a natural result of an increasingly interconnected world.
The problem is the way we raise food is making diseases. Avian flu that was bird agriculture, swine flu that was pig agriculture. When they jam all these animals together occasionally one of these bugs jump ship. Tons of these flus. Its a wake-up call for anyone regulating how people raise food.
Destroying bat habitats, ect. creates more opportunities for diseases to jump from one species to another.
Diseases are trying to kill us everyday and there's a war against viruses and it's a constant attack and its always evolving it's always changing there's too many of us and thats what it recognizes and it's trying to get rid of us. I've sometimes wondered if its Earth's natural reaction to overpopulation.

Historically, weaponizing disease what the Japanese did prior to World War 2 in that space, how they used them in World War 2 against the Chinese. What happened to that data after the war. The Soviet program from the end of World War 2 up to the collapse. What happened to that information. And then our programs today from the end of World War 2 up to and continuing through today. There are cases in the former Soviet Union of them doing research into infectious diseases and weaponizing it and then having it get it because protocols weren't followed or whatever else. And it kills a few people. And they hush, hush it because its 1960 or 1970 something. So there is precedent. So somebody could have been doing some sort of research. And it doesn't even have to be weaponization.

I'm surprised that more people aren't scared/terrified of AI. Personally, I believe that AI poses a huge danger to people and society. What will people do once their/all of the jobs are overtaken by AI? Unfortunately, I don't think that an AI utopia is likely…

 

[DarkRange55]

Probably WW3 if the US gets involved in the Ukraine War, but it probably won't due to MAD…lol the power of nukes, right? (haha jk)

I think NK is crazy enough to nuke SK tho, so maybe this would result in the start of WWIII…

I also think a financial crisis and societal collapse is likely for the US. The US is literally on the verge of collapse…

Not necessarily .. go back to you monetary economics MV=PY and the process of monetizing depends on Balance payments BOP deficits

• Monetary economics MV=PY which Keynes was also school in before we got to GDP accounting
• Y = C + I + G + (x-m)
• and yes BOP accounts matter current =- capital account

North Korea is insane but doubtful they would actually commit to war because they can't sustain it let alone feed their own population. China uses them to distract the US/Japan for connivence sometimes like a trade dispute comes up, North Korea shells an island. The Kim Dynasty wants to maintain power and is interested in self preservation. I did a 70 page report on North Korea in school. Also not sure if this situation would lead to WWIII. The US and alloes would definitely back S. Korea and are contractually obligated and maintain the 2nd Infantry Division (2 ID) there. China has an agreement with North Korea and only got involved last time because the US was pushing too far into North Korea (see macArthur's dismissal). But I don't think China would get involved. They would be doing everything they could to minimize the number of refugees they wpuld take in which is another reason they don't want North Korea to fall. And they don't want s unified Korea which ultimately after much cost and rebuilding and investment could become a much stronger economy potentially. I could go into much, much more detail but that should suffice for the moment.

 

[DarkRange55]

If you're looking for contingency plans…

Zombies is not a necessity contingency plan. I consider aliens to be a more likely disaster than zombies. The top of the contingency plans, you're supposed to have a household plan for fire or natural disasters depending on where you live. Your regional threat: tornados, hurricanes, mudslides, fire but we don't really talk about other contingency plans.

The number one contingency plan that most people don't have is nuclear war. There's still thousands and thousands of warheads that aimed and programmed to hit where you live (in a major city, mostly America and the UK, especially in the UK because it's so small you are in the direct sight of Russian missiles). This is a guarantee. Partially has to do with American military bases in the UK. You would have 15-20 minutes from a launch. It's been a serious threat for a long time. People used to build bomb shelters but I think most people don't do it because it freaks them out too much. But your chances for survival are going to increase a whole lot more if you understand what to do. You don't have to necessarily build a shelter (you need to build a shelter than can keep out radiation for a couple weeks as you cower in your basement), but you should always have food, water, supplies and whatnot. Read up on fallout radiation, takes you an hour to learn the information you need to have. But probably nothing will ever happen but you have that information.

The second contingency plan, which I think is more likely than nuclear war, is some sort of devastating plague or disease. Someone releases smallpox again or if something like ebola became airborne. Something like that I think is important to have a contingency plan for. Something like that is slightly more complicated, but very important to have a plan for. The thread of widespread disease is real. And is an even bigger threat now with the way travel works. You should have an understanding of quarantine, an understanding of basic medical procedures, which you should have that anyway, they should teach that in school. And understanding of how to handle a dead body, if that person died of disease how to properly buried them. All that stuff. Again, just takes you an hour and then you have that information.

The third is unrest of some sort, some sort of civil violence and this is also could be rolled into invasion but that's not going to happen (in the US). But recently (the last ~14 years) with the way, everyone's been acting, we have had a few recent historic bullet shortages. This is a thing that concerns me. You should have a contingency plan for riot some sort of civil unrest and that's the most likely - more likely than disease or nuclear war. We're not special just because we live in the US.

The slower civil/social disasters – creeping socialism, authoritarian governments, and religious extremism. I do not know of any way to prepare for creeping socialism except to work against it. But in a tribe of baboons, the alpha males tax the middle class and give it to the low-ranking baboons so that the low ranking baboons will side with the alpha males if the middle-class revolts, so socialism is not going to go away soon (unless artificial intelligence helps).

And can also consider adding:

- Financial collapse/panic
- EMP