Will Putin soon invade a NATO country? How do you think would NATO react?

[noname223]

Putin plays with fire.

I don't know the source I link. I usually read German news on these issues.

Russian warplanes violate Estonian airspace in ‘unprecedented’ move as WW3 fears escalate

NATO nation Estonia has described the move by Russia as 'brazen'.

www.unilad.com

It seems more and more likely that Putin wants to invade another country probably a Baltic state. He wants to test NATO's response to provocations. Whether NATO would actually not back down if Putin invaded a Baltic state. He approaches more and more that option. He could invade small towns in Baltic states with a large minorities of Russian speaking people and claim he had to save them from the NATO fascists. He wil claim he only does that to give them a right of self-determination.

If Putin is determined to open a second front it could be rational to do that in the coming months or a few years. I would not wait until European countries invested billion of Euros into their military. In the long run Russia's power will decline. Their debt will grow and fossil fuels will becom less important. Intelligence services say it is likely Russia will invade a NATO country in the coming years. If they did it now, it would way earlier than predicted. They say Russia's military has to recover over their loses in Ukraine before invading another country. If I was Putin I would do it while Trump is in office. And maybe make an argeement with China. China invades Taiwan and Russia a Baltic state. The former might happen until 2027 for various reasons.

I think I am a Ukraine hawk. And I was that probably the whole time during this war. Scholz might prevented with his pressure on Xi that Putin used tactical nukes pretty early in the conflict. We will probably never know the truth. I wonder whether US intelligence services could still predict an invasion as precisely as in 2022. I think US intelligence services got way worse under Trump. And they look the other way round when Russia spreads misinformation that helps Trump.

I watch some commentators who might want to be seen as doves in this conflict. But I find them sort of delusional. Maybe there is some truth in the fact that NATO made Russia uncomfortable. If Ukrainians enjoyed the Western lifestlye this could have destabilized Russia simply because Russians would have wanted the same freedoms and Democracy. But in my opinion it is more than obvious who is the aggressor in this conflict especially looking at the last years. It seems insane that people still defend Putin. I watch Glenn Greenwald and he blamed NATO to be the aggressors because they "pretend" that the drones that fly in NATO borders were sent on purpose. Glenn really thinks this was coincidence. How stupid can you be? This happened now countless of times. It gets more and more aggressive. But I cannot take Glenn Greenwald serious anymore on Russia. He interviewed Dugin on how great the Russian Democracy was. LMAO. I am not sure whether Glenn is really that dumb or whether he simply wants to spread propaganda. Some leftwingers are totally blind and naive towards Russia. (Rightwingers too.) How can you deny what is obviously happening. There is this popular German politician Sarah Wagenknecht in the days before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine she promised Putin wants peace. She never changed her position on that even after the invasion. She simply invented new excuses why Putin acts the way he does. And the far-right AfD Is also pro-Russia.

One could only determine when worldwars started retrospectively. Maybe WW3 already started. But if Putin invaded a NATO state, we would be in the next stage with a massive escalation. If a NATO state was invaded, how do you think would NATO react? What would Trump do? I am not sure whether Trump would help us substantially. Would such a war, end in a nuclear war eventually with no chances to prevent it? I mean if NATO backs down to go to war, NATO would break down immediately losing its credibility. I am not sure whether Putin speculates on that. He does not respect Trump for sure.

Maybe the tensions calm down for some time in the coming weeks. But that intellgience services are right in their assessment that it is only a matter of time that Russia invades a NATO country seems likelier than ever before...

 

[sinfonia]

I hope we (the West) finally stop funding the drug addict regime in Ukraine and bring this stupid war to an end.

 

[Lyscx]

Putin plays with fire.

I don't know the source I link. I usually read German news on these issues.

Russian warplanes violate Estonian airspace in ‘unprecedented’ move as WW3 fears escalate

NATO nation Estonia has described the move by Russia as 'brazen'.

www.unilad.com

It seems more and more likely that Putin wants to invade another country probably a Baltic state. He wants to test NATO's response to provocations. Whether NATO would actually not back down if Putin invaded a Baltic state. He approaches more and more that option. He could invade small towns in Baltic states with a large minorities of Russian speaking people and claim he had to save them from the NATO fascists. He wil claim he only does that to give them a right of self-determination.

If Putin is determined to open a second front it could be rational to do that in the coming months or a few years. I would not wait until European countries invested billion of Euros into their military. In the long run Russia's power will decline. Their debt will grow and fossil fuels will becom less important. Intelligence services say it is likely Russia will invade a NATO country in the coming years. If they did it now, it would way earlier than predicted. They say Russia's military has to recover over their loses in Ukraine before invading another country. If I was Putin I would do it while Trump is in office. And maybe make an argeement with China. China invades Taiwan and Russia a Baltic state. The former might happen until 2027 for various reasons.

I think I am a Ukraine hawk. And I was that probably the whole time during this war. Scholz might prevented with his pressure on Xi that Putin used tactical nukes pretty early in the conflict. We will probably never know the truth. I wonder whether US intelligence services could still predict an invasion as precisely as in 2022. I think US intelligence services got way worse under Trump. And they look the other way round when Russia spreads misinformation that helps Trump.

I watch some commentators who might want to be seen as doves in this conflict. But I find them sort of delusional. Maybe there is some truth in the fact that NATO made Russia uncomfortable. If Ukrainians enjoyed the Western lifestlye this could have destabilized Russia simply because Russians would have wanted the same freedoms and Democracy. But in my opinion it is more than obvious who is the aggressor in this conflict especially looking at the last years. It seems insane that people still defend Putin. I watch Glenn Greenwald and he blamed NATO to be the aggressors because they "pretend" that the drones that fly in NATO borders were sent on purpose. Glenn really thinks this was coincidence. How stupid can you be? This happened now countless of times. It gets more and more aggressive. But I cannot take Glenn Greenwald serious anymore on Russia. He interviewed Dugin on how great the Russian Democracy was. LMAO. I am not sure whether Glenn is really that dumb or whether he simply wants to spread propaganda. Some leftwingers are totally blind and naive towards Russia. (Rightwingers too.) How can you deny what is obviously happening. There is this popular German politician Sarah Wagenknecht in the days before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine she promised Putin wants peace. She never changed her position on that even after the invasion. She simply invented new excuses why Putin acts the way he does. And the far-right AfD Is also pro-Russia.

One could only determine when worldwars started retrospectively. Maybe WW3 already started. But if Putin invaded a NATO state, we would be in the next stage with a massive escalation. If a NATO state was invaded, how do you think would NATO react? What would Trump do? I am not sure whether Trump would help us substantially. Would such a war, end in a nuclear war eventually with no chances to prevent it? I mean if NATO backs down to go to war, NATO would break down immediately losing its credibility. I am not sure whether Putin speculates on that. He does not respect Trump for sure.

Maybe the tensions calm down for some time in the coming weeks. But that intellgience services are right in their assessment that it is only a matter of time that Russia invades a NATO country seems likelier than ever before...

Look im Russian. I can assure you that Usa and Russia are very much allies. Russia needs Usa against China that wants Siberia And Usa needs Russia against China that is becoming too big of a world power. War in ukraine was a setup for ukraine by us and russia from the start. Look at what happened to ukraine. Resources are split and land is given to Russia. There wont be a war between Nato and Russia. Or at very least Usa will not intervene. Buti dont think another big war in Europe will happen

 

[Skallagrim]

1. It isn't "Putin." It's "Russia". If you think that somehow everything that is happening wouldn't happen at all if it was just someone else in charge... well... you're right. We'd all be living in nuclear fallout shelters by now.

2. Russia has no interest in attacking NATO. They'll probably take Odessa, Kharkiv and everything up to the Dnieper river. That's all.

3. Russia is not your enemy.

4.

I watch Glenn Greenwald and he blamed NATO to be the aggressors because they "pretend" that the drones that fly in NATO borders were sent on purpose. Glenn really thinks this was coincidence. How stupid can you be?

He's not stupid there. He's just wrong because he's not a military analyst. The chances that these drones were Russian at all is de-minimis.

First, facts:

These were Gebera drones. (Western source).

Geberas are *short range* drones. (Western Source).

The distance from 10km inside the Russian border, to the Polish border, flying over Ukraine, is about 500km - vastly further than the Gebera's maximum range (and they don't launch drones from that distance).

Let's set aside that, and assume these had some sort of range stat boost (because they had no weapons, no heavy warhead, and were made from plywood and plastic, really).

Now, logic:

How did these particular drones get all the way over Ukraine and into Poland without being tracked or shot down considering that at least 80% of drones are downed and almost all are detected? (Western source)

What does Russia gain from flying some plywood drones without any ordinance into Poland?

Almost every single thing about this situation you hear from Western sources is an outright lie. And they're never corrected.

 

[noname223]

1. It isn't "Putin." It's "Russia". If you think that somehow everything that is happening wouldn't happen at all if it was just someone else in charge... well... you're right. We'd all be living in nuclear fallout shelters by now.

2. Russia has no interest in attacking NATO. They'll probably take Odessa, Kharkiv and everything up to the Dnieper river. That's all.

3. Russia is not your enemy.

4.

He's not stupid there. He's just wrong because he's not a military analyst. The chances that these drones were Russian at all is de-minimis.

First, facts:

These were Gebera drones. (Western source).

Geberas are *short range* drones. (Western Source).

The distance from 10km inside the Russian border, to the Polish border, flying over Ukraine, is about 500km - vastly further than the Gebera's maximum range (and they don't launch drones from that distance).

Let's set aside that, and assume these had some sort of range stat boost (because they had no weapons, no heavy warhead, and were made from plywood and plastic, really).

Now, logic:

How did these particular drones get all the way over Ukraine and into Poland without being tracked or shot down considering that at least 80% of drones are downed and almost all are detected? (Western source)

What does Russia gain from flying some plywood drones without any ordinance into Poland?

Almost every single thing about this situation you hear from Western sources is an outright lie. And they're never corrected.

1. We don't know who the Russian president was if history took a different path. Putin does not want that Russia becomes a liberal democracy that's clear. It is speculative whether different leaders would have been even more aggressive towards the West or whether a second Gorbatschow could have been in office. The West has made mistakes in their strategy who to deal with Russia and Ukraine. It does not legitimize an invasion of a sovereign country though.

2. How are you so certain about that? The people who claim that were also the same people that claimed Russia would never invade Ukraine. Russia's economy only thrives because of massive spending in the military apparatus. Russia's schools indoctrinate their children that sacrificing yourself for your homecountry was something to be proud of. How would Russia's economy becomes less dependent on the military complex if there was a peaceful agreement with Ukraine and the West? It seems as if the Russian economy took a path which is very hard to reverse.

3. Russia's is not my enemy? I think Putin is a war criminal and should rot in prison. What would happen to me if went for a trip to Russia and demonstrate against the war? Calling out Russian war crimes. How would I be treated then? I am in favor of the LGBTQI+ movement. I am in favor of trans rights. What happens to people who have such a political opinion in Russia? What if you call this miliary special operation what it is criminal act against international war, a war against a neighbor country. I think not all Russians are my enemy. The ones who support the war againt the war with open arms? Or the journalists in Russian media that wrote headlines line "The rest of Europe will look like Ukraine soon" after the J.D. Vance speech.

4. I am no military expert. But now you quote Western sources to make your point. But isn't another point of you that Western sources are full of propaganda and can't be trusted?

Here is an article that explains the longer range of these drones.

Photos Show Russian Gerbera Drones Recovered in Poland Had Secret Long-Range Tanks

Photos of Russian Gerbera drones found in Poland show modifications challenging Moscow’s claims, indicating new operational capabilities against NATO.

united24media.com

Photos of Russian Gerbera drones recovered in Poland reveal modifications that contradict Moscow's claims about their limited range. Militarnyi, citing the independent military expert Telegram channel "Polkovnik GSH," reported that the Gerberas found on Polish territory were equipped with additional fuel tanks in the nose section, extending their endurance beyond the standard 700 kilometers.

By contrast, Gerbera drones previously documented in Ukraine have not featured these auxiliary tanks. Images of wreckage collected from multiple downed drones inside Ukraine show only the basic fuselage, without modifications.

Analysts suggest this indicates the existence of a special long-range variant designed specifically for operations against NATO territory.

Independent military experts noted: "The inflow of these drones into Poland clearly shows they were adapted for a greater distance. This is not the same Gerbera seen in Ukraine."

The Russian Ministry of Defense earlier denied responsibility, arguing that the drone type could not physically reach Polish airspace due to its maximum flight range. However, the technical evidence from wreckage in Poland directly undermines that assertion.

Next point: According to this article https://www.clingendael.org/publication/what-russian-drone-incursion-poland-means-nato "NATO fighters swiftly shot down a couple of drones, while a dozen others managed to slip through". I think your 80% guess is speculative. Aren't these drones used in swarms to overwhelm defense systems? It is seems completely plausible that Ukraine could not shoot all of them down. Especially, because Ukraines lacks ammunition to do so and only has limited resources for that.

To you last question. I could say the same: What does the NATO or Ukraine gain to pretend these drones were intentionally sent by Russia? Here comes I think our underlying issue. We have completely diametrical viewpoints about this conflict. And I won't undertake your narrative. And you won't undertake my narrative.

The table in this article sums up the possible Russian intentions better than I could ever do that. https://www.clingendael.org/publication/what-russian-drone-incursion-poland-means-nato
It ranges from probing and intelligence gathering. To decision making manipulation. Testing NATO's ability and willingness to react to the incursion.

Personally, I think Putin's Russia wants that the NATO and the EU crumbles into pieces. And this is testing NATO's committment to activate article 4/5. Moreover, the European population should be in a state of panic to destabilize the Western democracies even more.

 

[sinfonia]

I wonder how many bombs the US would drop on Mexico if there was even the faintest possibility of them enetering into a military alliance with Russia? All hell would break loose.

What if you call this miliary special operation what it is criminal act against international war, a war against a neighbor country.

It would have been a special military operation had the West not ntervened. It turned into a full-scale war becauae the West has been supplying Ukraine with advanced weaponry and moral support for over three years. They wouldn't have lasted 3 weeks otherwise; most military experts seem to agree on that.

 

[Pluto]

 

[Skallagrim]

Putin does not want that Russia becomes a liberal democracy that's clear.

The western mantra of "Liberal Democracy" is the same colonialist belief that every empire has indulged in throughout antiquity.

Rome were taming the Barbarian hordes.

The Christian empire was never doing the work of God.

The British were bringing civilization to the savages.

And now, the West (led by USA, with Europe as vassals) is exporting a corporate, consumer capitalist empire wearing an American hat, and they were never fighting to spread "freedom and democracy" around the world.

It's all a lie, and the lie was always first fed to their own citizens first to justify the atrocities committed by the empire they lived under.

We're fed this propaganda - that everyone else in the world envies us, that we're the best, that our culture and society is superior. In Russia, it's so dreadful that people there would actively rebel if they could only know how wonderful our way of life is by comparison (apparently, nobody there has internet). And China, of course, is a communist hellhole where only a measly 96% of the population own their own home. Socialist states all fail miserably, because they're socialist (not because of massive sanctions, obviously), whereas those countries that see the light and go liberal do well with only modest bailout, and then another one.

Ever hear about any of this in the mainstream media?

And in the name of "Liberal Democracy" our countries have bombed, attacked, sanctioned, launched coups, spied on, and assassinated with wild abandon. US led actions have killed somewhere between 5 and 11 million civilians since the year 2000, all in the name of "spreading peace and democracy".

Even now, with our resources, our money, and our consent, a literal genocide is taking place in the Gaza strip. The *main targets* of this are children - because by wiping out children, they're obliterating the future of that people. Bullets, bombs, manufactured in the "Liberal Democracy" are being used to destroy the most innocent of lives because Israel itself is a "Liberal Democracy" that can project our "values" into the region - at the end of yet more violence.

How can this be so? Surely... surely our media would say? Surely they can't lie so brazenly?

Remember when Russia jammed Ursula von der Leyen's airplane's GPS? Remember the BBC, the Guardian, Reuters, Politico and CNN all reporting on this attack on a world leader?

Then remember how it was all just completely and utterly made up?

Was there ever a retraction? Was there ever an admission of a mistake, even? No. There was an argument.

This is hegemony. Just like throughout history, many countries would not bend the knee to the hegemony. Smaller countries found themselves the recipient of sanctions (more than 60% of the planet now), others suddenly found themselves having revolutions, or their leaders were assassinated. More were bombed in an effort to "bring peace." But Russia? China? They're too big. The sanctions ineffective. Their militaries too powerful. Their citizenry, contrary to what you're told, too stable.

So they get surrounded - any excuse. Bases all around their borders, missiles on their doorstep pointed right at them, anything that could be construed as "threatening" hammed up. They fly 2 MiG 31s *over the sea* near Estonia? That's an act of provocation! But we give Ukraine Shadow Storm and ATACMS long range cruise missiles (that have killed upwards of 200 civlians so far)... well... Russia just gotta suck that up, because we're a Liberal Democracy.

Thing is; this system is dying.

Here is are the attendees of the recent SCO summit.

Spoiler: SCO

For better or for worse, each one of those are leaders who represent the interests of the country they lead. You could argue that they're evil, because they're not "Liberal Democracies". But when you compare it to the "Liberal Democracy" summit, and who was invited to that, well...

Spoiler: The West

...they're not looking after your interests. And the system is starting to break. Populists are rising like Tommy Robinson, the Right in Europe, Trump in the USA, but these people have no answers. It's not immigration or trans people or Russia that are making our lives difficult.

This is all a huge lie.

But we can not say what the problem is - "Liberal Democracy", a byword for "free-for all Darwinian style capitalism" is a disaster, but to admit it now, after putting all our eggs in this basket, would be to face up to a quite difficult truth, a truth that would have to see us turn our societies upside down in an effort to correct the mistakes we've made. All those wealthy people at that summit? There is no way they'd let that happen - in fact that's what "campaign contributions" all about.

So we're going to fight it out... have war after war after war until we're spent, until everything is gone, and until the same thing happens to us that happened to every empire that came before us. It's happening right now, and it's not gonna be pretty.